The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field this afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET. This matchup between the two National League teams presents several intriguing storylines and statistical trends.
Pitcher's Duel: Steele vs Nelson
For the Cubs, Justin Steele will be on the mound. Steele has been a reliable option this season, making 14 starts. Despite his 2-3 record, his 2.71 ERA demonstrates his effectiveness on the mound. Steele has also produced eight quality starts this season, including a remarkable recent outing where he pitched seven scoreless innings. His home ERA of 3.16 and road ERA of 2.96 indicate his consistent performance irrespective of venue. Projections suggest Steele will notch six strikeouts in today's game.
Opposing him for the Diamondbacks is Ryne Nelson, who carries a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA into the game. Nelson's WHIP stands at 1.42, with a batting average against him at .296. Despite these seemingly modest figures, Nelson has managed to string together six consecutive starts without giving up more than three earned runs. He is projected to have four strikeouts today but is expected to concede more runs than Steele.
Team Trends and Records
The Diamondbacks, currently holding a 49-48 record, are chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, trailing by seven games. They have demonstrated strong form on the road, winning four of their last five away games and covering the run line in the same span. Overall, Arizona's run line record is 49-48, and their games average 9.8 runs this season. In terms of betting lines, Arizona is noted for an over/under record of 52-42, with 84.5% of their games surpassing the 7.5 run line.
Batting hasn't been a weak spot for the Diamondbacks either, as they average five runs per game, the second-best mark in MLB. Christian Walker, with 22 homers, and Ketel Marte, with 19 homers, anchor the offensive efforts. However, they are coming off a recent heartbreak, losing 8-7 to the Blue Jays after leading by seven runs. Despite that setback, the Diamondbacks have won their last two road games.
The Cubs, a team with a 47-51 record, find themselves fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Their recent form has been more encouraging, with a 7-3 record in their last ten games, and a 4-1 record in their last five home games. They are 9-5 as home underdogs this year. Offensively, the Cubs average 4.2 runs per game and maintain an overall batting average of .235. Importantly, 67.3% of their games surpass the 7.5 run line, and they have a 12-10 record when the over/under is set at 7.5.
Key Players to Watch
For the Diamondbacks, Christian Walker and Ketel Marte are the offensive powerhouses to watch. On the Cubs' side, Nico Hoerner, who has been hitting .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel, with three homers in his last eight games, are the hot hands.
In the Cubs' recent 8-3 victory over the Cardinals, Jameson Taillon pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs, showcasing the kind of performance the Cubs might need from Steele today.
Both teams are currently on three-game over streaks, indicating potential for a high-scoring affair. Historically, the Diamondbacks have a 6-4 record when the over/under line is set at 7.5, while the Cubs are 12-10 under similar conditions.
Game Prediction
Given the current statistics and projections, the Diamondbacks are narrow money line favorites at -106. The prediction for this game suggests a close affair, with a projected final score of Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 4. This aligns with the broader trends we're seeing in both teams' performances this season.
Today's game promises an exciting contest with key performances expected from both starting pitchers and a mix of strong offensive outings. As fans at Wrigley Field settle in, they'll be treated to what should be a closely contested game between two teams looking to build on their recent performances and gain momentum as the season progresses.