As the NBA prepares for another thrilling season, the spotlight often falls on the league's fresh faces. The Rookie of the Year award, a prestigious accolade that showcases promising talents, has long been a barometer of future success. However, the path to this recognition is typically dominated by high-scoring guards and top draft picks. This year's (2024) draft class, notably seen as one of the least promising in NBA history, departs significantly from this trend.
Award Trends: Scoring and Draft Picks
Historically, the Rookie of the Year award has favored productive scorers, with half of the last 10 winners leading rookies in scoring. The pattern extends into draft positions as well, with half of the past 16 recipients being No. 1 overall picks. Only a few winners over the last 16 years have come from outside the top five picks. Prominent exceptions include Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon, both of whom had stellar seasons despite their lower draft status.
The Big Men Anomaly
Since 2003, big men have seldom captured the award. Notable winners among big men include Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and most recently, Victor Wembanyama. This trend underlines the league's increasing inclination towards guard-dominated play, making it exceptional when a big man breaks through.
The 2024 Draft Class: Low Expectations
Labelled as one of the least promising in NBA history, the 2024 draft class presents a unique challenge. The top two picks are seen more as long-term projects rather than immediate game-changers and don’t play the guard position, which traditionally garners Rookie of the Year attention. Reed Sheppard stands out as the highest-picked guard in this draft class. Despite his potential, Sheppard faces stiff competition in Houston’s crowded backcourt, dampening his chances.
On Sheppard’s role in Houston, an insider commented, "They badly need his shooting," indicating that his offensive skills could carve out some playing time. But the crowded depth chart raises questions about how much opportunity he will truly have to shine.
Shooting Woes Among Newcomers
Several rookies have entered the league with glaring weaknesses in their shooting games. Stephon Castle, for instance, managed just a 26.7% three-point shooting rate at UConn, while Ron Holland fared even worse in the G-League, notching a 23.9% mark from beyond the arc.
Summer League performances were similarly underwhelming, with Alex Sarr shooting just 19.1% from the floor. Complicating matters for Sarr, another league observer noted, "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up," highlighting the team-related challenges he faces.
Rookies in Crowded Rooms
Joining a team with an established lineup can be a double-edged sword. Zach Edey, drafted by the Grizzlies, is relatively certain to start and is expected to model his game on Jonas Valanciunas. However, other newcomers find themselves buried in depth charts. Donovan Clingan, for instance, finds himself third in line behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III in Portland’s rotation.
Similarly, rookies Zaccharie Risacher, Isaiah Collier, and Dalton Knecht face substantial competition for playing time. Collier is particularly hamstrung by being behind Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, while Knecht's opportunities are limited by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell on the Lakers.
The Guard Dilemma
Even high-potential guards like Reed Sheppard, who are expected to fill significant roles, face powerfully talented backcourts ahead of them. Teams often prioritize roster continuity, making it difficult for rookies to break through, irrespective of their initial draft status or perceived potential.
In such an environment, players outside the draft lottery have observed limited success in recent times. Last season, Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received votes outside of the lottery but did not contend seriously for Rookie of the Year honors.
As the new season unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how these complex dynamics play out and whether any rookie can break the mold to claim the coveted Rookie of the Year award. The journey is fraught with challenges, making each success story all the more compelling.