The race for the coveted No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is heating up as the 2024 NFL season nears its final moments. At the forefront of this race are the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders, both languishing with a 2-12 record. These franchises are desperate for a turnaround, particularly in their quarterback situations, and landing the top pick could provide a pivotal opportunity.
Giants’ Struggles and Prospects
The New York Giants are familiar with holding the No. 1 pick, having done so twice in their history, selecting Kyle Rote in 1951 and Tucker Frederickson in 1965. This year, they find themselves on a formidable nine-game losing streak, facing off against the Atlanta Falcons, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Indianapolis Colts in their remaining matches. With key players like Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock sidelined due to injuries, speculation surrounds Tim Boyle potentially stepping in as quarterback.
Simulation models have given the Giants a 38.6% probability of securing the top draft pick, foreseeing them potentially ending the season with three wins. This could thrust them into a favorable position to draft a standout quarterback such as Shedeur Sanders from Colorado Buffaloes or Cam Ward from the Miami Hurricanes, both seen as promising prospects ready to inject talent and vigor into the franchise.
Raiders’ Roadblocks
Similarly beset with challenges, the Las Vegas Raiders are on a ten-game losing streak. They began the season with a 2-2 record, suggesting early promise that has unfortunately unraveled. Their remaining schedule includes games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and Los Angeles Chargers. The Raiders have historically held the top pick only once since 1970, when they drafted JaMarcus Russell in 2007—an era fans remember with mixed emotions.
With quarterback Desmond Ridder likely to continue leading the charge, and Aidan O’Connell potentially sidelined due to a knee injury, the Raiders face an uphill battle. Still, they stand a 20.31% chance of clinching the No. 1 spot, according to simulation forecasts. Like the Giants, they too are projected to conclude the season with three victories, putting the franchises head-to-head in the draft sweepstakes.
Other Contenders
While the Giants and Raiders lead the fray, five other teams hold onto tenuous hopes of leapfrogging their way to the top pick. The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans all share a 3-11 record, making this one of the tightest races in recent memory.
Among these contenders, the Cleveland Browns have been identified with a 13.32% chance of sealing the No. 1 choice. As they gear up for confrontations against the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens on the road, alongside a home game against the Miami Dolphins, the Browns plan to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson, leaving Jameis Winston on the bench.
Strategic Implications
The strategic implications of securing the No. 1 pick resonate beyond just a singular player acquisition. For struggling teams like the Giants and the Raiders, acquiring a prospective star quarterback can catalyze a franchise's revival, inspire fan bases, and spark transformative changes in team dynamics. Given that both teams have endured significant quarterback changes this season, an injection of fresh talent at the helm could be the linchpin for future success.
As the final games unfold, all eyes will remain on the fortunes of these beleaguered teams. Whether the Giants' historical disposition guides them to another top selection or the Raiders break new ground with back-to-back selections yawns uncertain. Nevertheless, the narrative of the 2024 NFL season's bottom ranks is set to add a chapter whose consequences could be felt far beyond the draft podium in 2025.